mmeline

A few years ago, I used this R.E.M song to describe the negative tint in all things market, economy and policy related. As I write this on Monday, September 26th I am again marveling at the pervasive negative news across the world. Take your pick – a bumbling Fed, out of control inflation, Russia/Ukraine, and the Iowa Hawkeye’s offense – things seem bleak. All this dour energy is justified. We have seen a bear market take place in both bonds and stocks. That has not been the case since the early 80’s and has thrown a number of investment assumptions out the window. While I believe diversification and defensive posturing will always help – they haven’t been the lifeguard we’ve needed. So, what to do? 1. Acknowledge the negativity and recognize that these bad times, generally, do not last forever. We have persistent problems with high inflation and the [...]

Insights 2023 highlights the challenges that stem from new economic dynamics - higher interest rates, higher inflation and slowing growth.  Oh My - what to do?  Please join us on the replay of Insights 2023 - https://youtu.be/BiDSePM7fro

Economies move in cycles – always have, always will The Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing interest rates in an attempt to slow the rate of inflation. Its efforts are yielding some results, although inflation remains stubbornly high. This may cause the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, which may increase the chances of a recession. It’s important to remember that economic fluctuations are normal, and if we enter a recession, it is not a time to panic. As detailed below, every recession is unique, with varying lengths and severities. Putting recessions in context, we have come through each slowdown in the past, and the trajectory of the U.S. economy over time has been positive. Stages of the business cycle1 The economy’s movement through alternating periods of growth and contraction is known as the business cycle. The business cycle has four phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and [...]

If you ask the average investor which month is the most volatile for the stock market, they will probably say October. It's a reasonable answer, but it's incorrect. Despite October's reputation for market-defining events like the crash of 1929 that led to the Great Depression, Black Monday's drop in 1987, and the federal bank bailout at the start of the Great Recession in 2008, over the last 25 years, September returns on the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index have been worse. This phenomenon has become known as the "September Effect." And as you can see in the chart below, this isn't just a U.S. market anomaly, but a global trend that has affected stock markets worldwide. With September upon us, we wanted to discuss the September Effect and assure you that your investment strategy takes into consideration that there will be periods of market volatility. We also [...]